2026 World Cup Power Rankings: USMNT outside of top 20 and behind Mexico; Spain, Argentina the favorites

With the 2024-25 international season concluded, the 2026 World Cup knockout stages are now just one year away. This makes it an opportune moment to evaluate which teams are likely contenders for the title in 365 days.

Thirteen teams have already secured their spot in the tournament. The hosts, USA, Canada, and Mexico, are automatically in. From Asia, six teams have qualified: traditional powers Japan, South Korea, Iran, and Australia, joined by newcomers Jordan and Uzbekistan. New Zealand has advanced through Oceania qualifying and will appear in their first World Cup in 16 years. Additionally, three teams from the Americas have also confirmed their places.

Let`s begin with our top 32. Ranking all 48 teams can wait until the full field is determined, right?

1. Spain

They may have been upset by their neighbors in the Nations League final, but their dominant 5-0 win over France in that same competition highlighted why the European champions are strong contenders for the World Cup title. Control will be crucial in the North American summer heat, and Spain possesses this in abundance with midfielders like Pedri and Rodri. Add the attacking threat of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, and they are the team to beat.

2. Argentina

This is effectively a 1A and 1B situation. The defending champions have largely cruised through qualification, managing Lionel Messi`s minutes while he continues to deliver decisive goals. Their 4-1 victory over Brazil in March demonstrated their capability even without their greatest player, and their Copa America win showcased a team capable of keeping clean sheets in major tournaments.

3. France

Just when it seemed France`s attack couldn`t get any more formidable, Ousmane Dembele has emerged as a genuine Ballon d`Or candidate. Les Bleus could face injuries across the squad over the next year and still field a title contender. The main question is whether manager Didier Deschamps, potentially in his final major tournament, will deploy them to their full potential.

4. Brazil

Brazil possesses elite talent in almost every position, yet for some time, the team has felt less than the sum of its parts, lacking a conductor comparable to past greats. Perhaps Carlo Ancelotti, a master facilitator, can unite this star-studded group. He has limited time to make his mark.

5. Portugal

If the Nations League holds significance, then Portugal has once again answered a key question about their tournament winning ability. They defeated Germany and Spain en route to lifting the trophy for the second time, finding a way to play where Cristiano Ronaldo`s presence in the box isn`t always a liability. The rise of their young talents, particularly at Paris Saint-Germain, could significantly elevate Roberto Martinez`s side.

6. England

Thomas Tuchel appears to be primarily focused on preparing England for the big knockout matches next summer, seemingly content to make World Cup qualifying a more cautious process if it leads to better organization in the later stages. The concern might be the unsettled nature of the team, from central defense pairings to constructing a front six where only Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham, and Harry Kane are guaranteed starters amidst a wealth of attacking talent. Tuchel faces challenging selection decisions.

7. Germany

Another team with a slight imbalance, possessing many technical players but facing questions at striker. The potential stagnation of Nick Woltemade`s proposed move to Bayern Munich could benefit Julian Nagelsmann, as a full season as a starter at Stuttgart might prepare the 23-year-old perfectly for next summer`s World Cup.

8. Netherlands

Their draws with Spain in the Nations League indicated a team capable of competing deeply with the best. A talented midfield is developing, with Xavi Simons, Tijani Reijnders, and Ryan Gravenberch establishing themselves alongside Frenkie De Jong. Cody Gakpo and Donyell Malen scored crucial goals at the Euros; the question is whether they can repeat that performance in two years.

9. Uruguay

Qualifying momentum has slowed for Uruguay in Montevideo since the Copa America, with only two wins in their last ten matches (against Colombia and Venezuela at home). However, their victories against Brazil and Argentina in this cycle demonstrate the potential of Marcelo Bielsa`s system. A return to form for Darwin Nunez, ideally through a positive club move, seems key.

10. Morocco

The 2022 World Cup semifinalists appear even stronger now. They responded to a surprising AFCON exit by going on a 12-game winning streak, closing in on Spain`s record of 15 consecutive wins. Their place in North America will be secured if they avoid defeat against Niger in September. A team featuring talents like Brahim Diaz, Bilal El Khannouss, and Achraf Hakimi has aspirations far beyond just qualifying.

11. Norway

First, they need to qualify, and ending a quarter-century absence from a major tournament is a significant psychological hurdle. However, Norway is getting results and boasts two world-class players in Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard. They are also building a solid supporting cast of players like Kristoffer Ajer, starters for good teams in Europe`s top leagues. While it might be premature to call a team a dark horse before they qualify, Norway is already shaping up to be the dark horses of the 2026 World Cup.

12. Italy

Slightly underwhelming preparation hasn`t prevented Italy from making deep tournament runs before, like their Euro 2000 campaign or the slow start in 2006. However, in terms of talent, this Azzurri side doesn`t resemble those of the past. The attack, in particular, looked weak in the heavy defeat to Norway. It`s been since 2008 that Italy last fielded a striker with 20 international goals to their name.

13. Egypt

Another African side cruising through qualification, Egypt seems to have finally found a reliable attacking partner for Mohamed Salah in Omar Marmoush. If the rest of the squad provides solid support, this combination could lead to a successful international campaign.

14. Belgium

The obituaries for Belgium`s golden generation seem to have been written for longer than their peak success lasted. The decreasing availability of Kevin De Bruyne truly emphasizes that the era of sustained success for the 2018 bronze medalists is nearing its end. Nevertheless, De Bruyne proved in a 4-3 win over Wales that he can still conjure moments of magic.

15. Japan

The best performing nation in Asian qualifying, Japan appears to have a very promising squad whose standing is improving due to the recent performances of Hiroki Ito, Kaoru Mitoma, and Ao Tanaka. Their performance in the 2022 World Cup suggests they also have an excellent manager in Hajime Moriyasu. With a favorable draw, this team has the potential to reach the quarterfinals or beyond.

16. Ecuador

Currently second in CONMEBOL qualifying despite a three-point penalty for fielding an ineligible player, Ecuador`s defensive record is remarkable. Their opponents have scored just five goals in 16 games, with Rodrygo and Jhonder Cadiz being the only players to score against them in World Cup qualifiers since early last year. They also demonstrated a robust defense at the Copa America, understandable with Moises Caicedo shielding defenders like Willian Pacho and Piero Hincapie.

17. Croatia

The 5-1 victory over Czech Republic served as another reminder that this seasoned team is not finished yet, regardless of how often skeptics point out they haven`t won a tournament match in normal time since 1998. Bafflingly, this team has developed a pattern of underperforming at Euros but excelling at the World Cup, and it still feels premature to bet against them doing it again.

18. Mexico

The kings of CONCACAF have experienced a significant resurgence in 2025. Raul Jimenez`s late-career form has been a boost, and they are sure to benefit from what will likely be some of the most passionate crowds at the entire tournament next summer. Given they will also benefit from the draw as hosts, El Tri can realistically aim to match the quarterfinal stage they reached when they previously hosted the competition twice.

19. South Korea

Qualifying was straightforward for the Taeguk Warriors, who showed in 2022 that they are not to be underestimated when they advanced from a challenging group. Heung-min Son may not be at his absolute peak next summer, but emerging talents like Lee Kang-in and Yang Min-hyeok are ready to support him.

20. Ivory Coast

A trip to Gabon is next for the AFCON holders, so their World Cup spot isn`t guaranteed. Even in this expanded 48-team tournament, African qualifying remains incredibly challenging. Nigeria, for instance, has significant work just to secure a playoff spot, let alone overtake South Africa for first place.

Returning to Ivory Coast, their squad appears to be in a transitional phase. Promising young players like Amad Diallo and Ousmane Diomande need time to develop, while veterans like Sebastien Haller and Franck Kessie are in the latter stages of their careers.

21. Colombia

Similar to Uruguay, Colombia started World Cup qualifying impressively, proving difficult to defeat even if they weren`t always winning. Recently, draws have become too frequent for Nestor Lorenzo`s Copa America silver medalists, who have won only one of eight matches since stunning Argentina in Barranquilla last September.

22. USA

Is this ranking slightly too low? I anticipate receiving enthusiastic messages around July 4th next year if a favorable draw helps Mauricio Pochettino`s side reach the quarterfinals. It`s easy to envision how potentially the most talented USMNT squad ever could surprise many, including this writer. However, many teams ranked above them possess a legitimate superstar, if not several. These are the types of players who can win tournament knockout matches at both ends of the pitch. While Christian Pulisic had a strong year, it was for an inconsistent AC Milan side.

Following the 2022 World Cup, it felt like the U.S. had several players on the verge of a breakthrough. It seemed likely that one or two of Pulisic, Tyler Adams, Giovanni Reyna, and Antonee Robinson would make `the leap`. None have fully done so yet. This likely places a practical limit on what the hosts can achieve.

23. Algeria

Vladimir Petkovic`s team has responded well after an early qualifying defeat to Guinea, winning two challenging away games and beating nearest rivals Mozambique. An interesting factor this season will be how much energy superstars playing in the Saudi Pro League can conserve for their national team duties in the summer. If they can manage it better than others, it could be good news for players like Riyad Mahrez.

24. Iran

Iran comfortably navigated what was arguably the most manageable Asian qualifying group. Their only setback was a loss to a Qatar side that needed the win when Iran was already bound for North America. Mehdi Taremi remains Team Melli`s main star. Iran consistently proves to be a tough opponent at World Cups, even if they typically fail to advance from the group stage.

25. Sweden

If Sweden qualifies, expect them to climb these rankings significantly. However, they haven`t even begun their potentially tricky four-team group against Switzerland, Slovenia, and Kosovo. This quartet is ripe for unpredictable outcomes, but any team featuring Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyokeres, and Dejan Kulusevski should expect to finish at the top.

26. Senegal

With DR Congo ahead of them in Group B and an away match in Kinshasa upcoming, Pape Thiaw`s side has work to do just to make it to North America. If they do qualify, Senegal could make a strong case for being the second-highest ranked African team. Their squad features a good mix of veterans like Edouard Mendy and Kalidou Koulibaly alongside dynamic players like Nicolas Jackson and Pape Matar Sarr.

27. Canada

In Jonathan David and Alphonso Davies, Canada likely possesses the two most talented players in CONCACAF. Head coach Jesse Marsch has shown skill in building solid foundations around star players. A deep run at last year`s Copa America fueled significant belief, but has that diminished slightly following an uninspired, Davies-less Gold Cup campaign?

28. Australia

The Socceroos advanced from Asia`s toughest group impressively, especially considering their disastrous start. New coach Tony Popovich led Australia to a win over Japan before they held their nerve against Saudi Arabia, coming back from an early deficit to secure second place in Group C. This isn`t a team filled with the star names of the 2000s, but as proven in 2022, it can be a formidable collective unit.

29. Jordan

These World Cup debutants have been on an impressive upward trajectory, reaching the final of the 2023 Asia Cup with victories over teams like Iraq and South Korea. They weren`t short on goals in qualifying; Yazan Al-Naimat and Ali Olwan were among six forwards who topped the scoring charts in the third round with five goals each.

30. Uzbekistan

Admittedly, we`re venturing into less clear territory at this point in the rankings. The battle for second place behind Iran wasn`t the most attention-grabbing part of Asian qualifying. However, a defense anchored by Manchester City`s Abdukodir Khusanov conceded just seven goals over 10 games, which is a positive sign heading into an international tournament.

31. Panama

It seems reasonable to assume that Panama, the highest-ranked non-host team in CONCACAF, will reach the World Cup, either by topping their four-team group or via the intercontinental playoffs. Thomas Christiansen`s side looked strong at the Gold Cup before a penalty shootout loss to Honduras, with Ismael Diaz in particularly fine form.

32. New Zealand

This is by no means an easy assessment, and New Zealand being at the bottom of this list doesn`t mean they will remain there when the field expands to 48 teams. They have Chris Wood in excellent form for Nottingham Forest and a defensive trio from MLS: Michael Boxall, Finn Surman, and Bill Tuiloma. They even defeated Ivory Coast in a friendly last month. However, it`s challenging to fully evaluate a team whose toughest opponents in qualifying were Fiji and New Caledonia.