Erling Haaland has started the season in sensational form, netting six goals in just five matches. The Norwegian striker appears as formidable now as at any point since his arrival in England three years ago. Only Tottenham has managed to keep Haaland off the scoresheet, yet this was more a reflection of a lackluster overall performance from Manchester City than from their star No.9, who was uncharacteristically burdened with creative responsibilities.
Haaland is reaffirming his status as one of football`s greatest pure goal-scorers, and Pep Guardiola is keenly aware of it. Manchester City`s attacking strategy is increasingly geared not just toward taking shots, but specifically toward creating scoring opportunities for him. In their first four Premier League matches, the team registered 50 shots, with a remarkable 19 coming from Haaland. No other player reached double figures, and the fact that 38% of all attempts are directed at their star striker represents a significant surge compared to last season, when he accounted for just over 21% of chances.
City`s “heliocentrism” becomes even more pronounced when analyzing their expected goals (xG). After four league rounds, the team boasts 8.47 xG, of which an astonishing 5.47 xG belongs to Haaland – nearly two-thirds! While some of this might regress toward the mean as the sample size of games expands, not all of it appears to be mere coincidence. With Kevin De Bruyne absent, Phil Foden striving to regain form, and many other attacking players defined more by their potential than their consistent output, this team relies on its main forward more than any other.
How to Watch Arsenal vs. Manchester City:
- Date: Sunday, September 21
- Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
- Location: Emirates Stadium – London
- Live Stream: Peacock
- Odds: Arsenal: -110; Draw: +260; Manchester City: +280
Pitted against this unstoppable attacking force is, as you might guess, an immovable object. Such is the nature of Arsenal`s defense, especially now with William Saliba expected to return from the twisted ankle he sustained before the international break. For the most part, they and the players in front of them have performed quite effectively when facing 11 players including Haaland.
Setting aside the chaotic second half of the 2-2 draw at the Etihad last season, where Arsenal nearly clung to a lead before Leandro Trossard`s first-half red card, Haaland has managed only six shots in three and a half games against the Gunners, with just two on target. Admittedly, he scored on both those occasions, but a key factor in Arsenal`s five-game unbeaten run against their title rivals is their ability to prevent Haaland from “doing Haaland stuff.”
“There are many things you have to get right against a player who doesn`t need much space, much time, or specific situations to generate big chances, especially when he`s in and around the box,” Arteta told CBS Sports in his pre-match press conference. “Sometimes the best thing to do is prevent the source, and we must do it again.”
He is correct about the solution Arsenal has implemented. In Haaland`s first two encounters with the team whose title challenge he disrupted, he registered 36 and 35 touches. Across the last two seasons, he has averaged merely 19 touches; in the 1-5 defeat at the Emirates, his last touch was the equalizer he scored in the 55th minute. With Gabriel and Saliba relishing the physical battle, this is a team unafraid of City`s star attacker. If anything, they are prepared to challenge him directly.
And while Haaland may have become an even more lethal attacking force this season, there are indications that Arsenal has also made its strong suit even more effective. After a clumsy start away to Manchester United, Arteta`s side has entered “lockdown mode” without the ball. Three of their last four opponents would genuinely find it as hard to break into Fort Knox as to force David Raya into an open-play save. While there have been questions about whether this team is threatening enough beyond set pieces, they are certainly ensuring the back door is locked; only two Liverpool shots around the hour mark at Anfield were open-play attempts in the last four games. The only goal Arsenal has conceded all season remains Dominik Szoboszlai`s free-kick, one of the Premier League`s best in recent years.
Arsenal`s open-play xG against in their last four games? A paltry 0.13 against Athletic Club, 0.06 against Nottingham Forest, 0.33 against Liverpool, and 0.07 against Leeds. To describe this as “lockdown” feels like an understatement. This is akin to Victor Wembanyama and Bam Adebayo facing your little brother`s junior varsity team. Even as Arteta desires “more,” he must acknowledge that this defense provides “a very big foundation to achieve what we want.”
This is all the more impressive given that almost three of those outstanding defensive displays occurred without Saliba, the defensive anchor in possession and the player tasked with covering the vast areas Arsenal leaves behind. In his absence, Cristhian Mosquera, acquired from Valencia for just $17.5 million, has excelled. The 21-year-old was highly regarded for both his eagerness to learn and his strength in duels at his former club – two attributes among many that have allowed him to quickly settle into the Premier League.
Arteta explained, “First of all, because he is very good. And I think credit to the scouting department, Andrea [Berta, Arsenal`s new sporting director], who presented the opportunity to have him. Again, no goals conceded, and as a young man, you know, someone extremely focused, very determined, very clear that he wanted to come here and he wanted to come here to play, earn his place. I think what he is doing in that position so early is very impressive.”
Mosquera`s excellent form is also a testament to the system, one where the often deliberate pace of ball progression ensures that if and when a turnover occurs, Arsenal`s defense is ready to immediately snuff it out. Such an approach hasn`t always won Arteta many admirers, but consider the alternative, which at its worst can resemble Haaland continuously running through the heart of a Manchester United side that seemingly has three center-backs on the pitch.
Arsenal`s system delivers results in the biggest games. It silences even the most dangerous strikers and appears to function effectively even in the absence of one of its crucial components. Haaland may be operating at the peak of his powers, but it seems Arsenal`s defense is too. The evidence from the past two years suggests that if this remains the case on Sunday afternoon, Manchester City will face a serious struggle to emerge victorious.
