The UEFA Champions League is back this Tuesday for a thrilling three-day start to its second league phase. The competition kicks off with high-profile clashes, including Bayern Munich and Chelsea. Following Paris Saint-Germain`s remarkable turnaround from near-elimination to European champions in just five months, this season promises a wealth of possibilities. While the defending champions are widely tipped as favorites, Real Madrid, a resurgent power, appears exceptionally well-positioned to vie for club football`s most prestigious honors.
Attention also turns to the enlarged English contingent, a group of six teams, each harboring legitimate ambitions of making a deep run in the tournament. Furthermore, this season introduces four clubs making their league phase debut, with Kazakhstan`s Kairat Almaty potentially emerging as the most fascinating dark horse. These topics and more will be explored as we delve into this week`s key questions.
1. Is Real Madrid the Frontrunner for the Title?
Despite being the reigning champions, boasting three of the top four Ballon d`Or nominees, and integrating Kylian Mbappe into an already impressive young squad, Real Madrid last season rarely displayed the dominance expected of a team vying for its 16th Champions League title. Their defense was hampered by injuries, and Carlo Ancelotti struggled to find a system that allowed Vinicius Junior and Mbappe to flourish together seamlessly. Often, Madrid appeared reactive rather than proactive, with their only truly controlled performance in significant matches being at home against a struggling Manchester City.
This season, however, marks a significant shift. Under Xabi Alonso, Real Madrid is no longer a side content with a passive role. Real Sociedad manager Sergio Francisco, who recently faced a less-than-fully-fit Madrid squad, eloquently described Alonso`s swift impact: `Xabi has transformed things. You observe that Real Madrid desires possession more, they`re more cohesive in their play, and more aggressive in pressing immediately after losing the ball. They can pin opponents deep in their own territory, perhaps not always creating an abundance of clear-cut chances, but certainly creating a sense of overwhelming dominance. I perceive this Real Madrid as possessing greater overall balance.`
Statistical analysis largely confirms Francisco`s observations, though slightly skewed by Madrid`s hard-fought victory with ten men at Anoeta. Across their initial three La Liga matches, their attacking sequences began, on average, almost six meters closer to the opponent`s goal, and there was a 10% increase in sequences originating in the attacking third. This indicates Real Madrid is winning possession higher up the pitch, yet they also exhibit patience in their build-up. Even after a gritty win in San Sebastian—a match typically involving desperate clearances—they maintain the league`s best pass completion rate. Currently, no other team demonstrates superior ability in advancing the ball into the final third and retaining it there. This style is notably similar to Xabi Alonso`s invincible Bayer Leverkusen side of recent years. While players and formation have evolved, the underlying tactical identity of that formidable Bundesliga team remains evident.
Crucially, this Real Madrid side features a fully integrated Kylian Mbappe. While Alonso has experimented with various attacking combinations in early fixtures, Mbappe has been a constant presence—and with good reason. He has already netted four goals and provided an assist in his first four games, maintaining an astonishing average of six shots per 90 minutes. The team`s 4-2-3-1 formation appears to accommodate him more effectively alongside Vinicius Junior, with the Brazilian providing wider threat while Mbappe drifts into the left half-space.
With the attack in sync, the defense also possesses the depth to absorb an injury to a key player like Antonio Rudiger. Dean Huijsen, for example, has shown promise in his appearances, aside from disciplinary issues. Overall, the squad has gelled remarkably well, even as they anticipate the return of influential midfielders Jude Bellingham and Eduardo Camavinga.
So, what could prevent them from clinching the Champions League title? Primarily, factors beyond Alonso`s direct influence. Elite contenders like PSG, Liverpool, Arsenal, and Barcelona have all had considerably more time to refine their tactical systems compared to Madrid. Nonetheless, even at this early juncture of the season, these perennial winners appear poised to challenge for the trophy once more, a prospect that should be a stark warning to their European rivals.
2. English Clubs: How Many Will Reach the Top Eight?
This season`s Champions League league phase features a strong presence of Premier League teams. Following the general success of English clubs in European competitions, coupled with Tottenham`s Europa League triumph, a total of six English sides will participate. It`s plausible that all, or at least four, of these teams realistically expect to finish in the top eight, thereby securing a direct bye to the round of 16.
Starting with the clear favorites, it would be a major upset if Arsenal and Liverpool fail to advance. Arsenal benefited from the second-easiest fixture list in the league phase, based on Opta`s team rankings at the draw. Liverpool, while investing heavily in elite attacking talent, might face depth challenges. However, barring a severe injury crisis, they are expected to comfortably secure a top-eight spot.
Manchester City and Chelsea present more complex cases. While Pep Guardiola`s team convincingly defeated Manchester United, their overall schedule offers fewer simple encounters. As they adapt to a more direct, Erling Haaland-centric style, occasional inconsistencies are possible; just two losses, akin to those against Sporting and Juventus, could severely hamper their chances of reaching the top eight. Chelsea, on the other hand, signaled their elite ambitions at the Club World Cup. They must validate this status through challenging matches against Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Napoli, and Atalanta.
Regarding Newcastle, early season observations suggest Eddie Howe has adopted a more conservative playing style. While this might be advantageous in European competition, it carries the risk of dropping points in home fixtures against teams like Benfica or Athletic Bilbao. Newcastle has arguably faced the toughest assignments in their league matches. Tottenham, conversely, faces a different challenge, and a compelling narrative for the coming months will be how Thomas Frank adjusts his tactics in games where Spurs dominate possession and territory. This adaptation seems ongoing, though set pieces are currently proving effective for quick victories.
Considering the question of how many English teams will secure a top-eight finish, after the extensive effort of predicting every league phase match, my projection stands at three: Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City. Chelsea remains an interesting wildcard; they might need to secure four points from their Italian opponents and/or defeat either Bayern Munich or Barcelona. Such achievements are certainly within their capabilities, and if Enzo Maresca’s squad succeeds, the latter stages of this competition could feature a substantial Premier League presence.
3. Will Serie A Teams Struggle Again This Year?
While the strong Premier League representation seems fitting given its stature in European football, it`s notable that only two English teams—Manchester City in their winning year and Arsenal last May—have reached the Champions League semifinals in the past three seasons. This figure is actually lower than Serie A`s, largely thanks to Inter Milan. In both 2023 and 2025, Inter came remarkably close to ending Italy`s now 15-year drought for a European club champion, the second longest in their history. Reaching the final in both seasons represented a top 10 percentile outcome for the Nerazzurri, who benefited from a favorable draw against local rivals en route to Istanbul one year, and then impressively navigated challenging knockout ties against Bayern Munich and Barcelona in another. Such performances illustrate the potential for teams ranked roughly sixth to ninth in Europe. However, they are also susceptible to early knockout stage exits, as seen when Atlético Madrid eliminated them on penalties in 2024.
Inter Milan`s two defeats in their opening three games don`t necessarily indicate a significant decline from their peak under Simone Inzaghi. However, the lack of a proven elite head coach, until Cristian Chivu demonstrates his capabilities, remains a potential weakness. A similar sentiment could apply to Juventus, though `the Old Lady` has made intriguing acquisitions such as Lois Openda and Jonathan David. Their tactic of taking almost half their shots from outside the box has yielded impressive results early this season, but relying on this unsustainable approach in the long run would be a risky gamble.
Assessing Atalanta post-Gian Piero Gasperini is premature; while their advanced statistics are promising, they have only faced weaker opponents like Pisa, Parma, and Lecce, against whom a higher points tally would be expected. Napoli, however, presents the most intriguing case. They`ve showcased a distributed attacking threat this season, leading the league with 6.11 xG spread among players including Scott McTominay, Rasmus Hojlund, and Kevin De Bruyne. Although their early season form has been strong in a limited sample, their performances in a larger set of matches since Khvicha Kvaratskhelia`s departure to Paris Saint-Germain suggest they are a rather ordinary European side—barely the best in Italy, let alone contenders to dominate the continent. Without a sustained run of peak, injury-free performances from De Bruyne, their overall talent level appears insufficient. This might unfortunately reflect the broader situation across Italian football, meaning their lengthy wait for European glory could soon mirror the two decades Serie A endured until 1985.
4. Kairat Almaty: Are They Truly Underdogs?
The most significant upset of the Champions League season might have occurred largely unnoticed. Club Elo ratings indicated remarkably long odds, approximately +16500, against Celtic failing to win either of their matches against Kazakh champions Kairat Almaty. These ratings assign Kairat an Elo score of 1302, while top-ranked Liverpool sits at 2010. To put this in perspective, Bodo/Glimt, ranked 33rd in the competition, falls almost precisely midway between Liverpool and Kairat. Even Pafos and Qarabag are significantly superior to the Champions League`s most easterly team ever.
This assessment isn`t an anomaly confined to a single dataset. Opta`s club power rankings place Kairat as the 437th best team globally, marginally ahead of Lincoln City, currently 14th in England`s League One. The consensus among most statistical models is that Kairat would struggle to avoid relegation in the Championship. This starkly suggests they are mere cannon fodder for Europe`s elite.
However, Kairat has navigated past four increasingly challenging opponents: while Olimpia Ljubljana and Finland`s KuPS are not European powerhouses, a team capable of pushing Slovan Bratislava and Celtic to penalty shootouts might not be easily dismissed. Across two legs, they limited Celtic to just 1.78 xG and eight shots over three and a half hours of football. Furthermore, they possess a significant home advantage: any visiting team will face a grueling 4,000-mile journey across three or four time zones, playing in the midst of an already demanding European season.
Ultimately, this is football, a low-scoring sport where a single off-day from a key player, like Daezen Maeda in a knockout game, can alter an entire season`s trajectory. On a given day, Kairat might benefit from lucky breaks, potentially even when facing Real Madrid. While stranger things have indeed occurred in football, such instances are, of course, rare.
