The UEFA Champions League returns for its second week of the league phase, featuring several captivating fixtures. Among them, the highly anticipated clash between Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain at the Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys stands out. Originally viewed by many as a potential 2025 final, this encounter now sees two injury-affected teams battle for a crucial top-eight position.
Elsewhere, a significant narrative unfolds with Jose Mourinho`s return to Stamford Bridge as his Benfica squad aims to challenge Chelsea, adding to the growing discontent surrounding Enzo Maresca. This week also features potential major upsets, with Real Madrid traveling to Kazakhstan to face Kairat Almaty and Pafos hosting their inaugural home Champions League match against formidable Bayern Munich. These compelling matchups form the basis of our four key questions for the week:
1. Can Barcelona and PSG deliver a final-worthy spectacle?
Tuesday features a fixture many anticipated for the May 31st final. While Inter`s dramatic semi-final victory provided ample excitement, Yann Sommer`s steadfast defense denied a direct showdown between Europe`s two most potent attacks in a Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain encounter. This current meeting carries lower stakes, as both teams can likely absorb a loss and still advance to the top eight of the league phase, though their squads might not be at full strength.
Last season`s top Champions League performer, Raphinha, is sidelined for at least two weeks. Similarly, several key players from PSG`s recent successful run are either doubtful or confirmed absentees. Ballon d`Or winner Ousmane Dembele has been a long-term doubt, and in Saturday`s 2-0 win against Auxerre, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Vitinha also picked up apparent thigh muscle injuries. These are just a few of the significant absences; a neutral fan would undoubtedly prefer to see talents like Joao Neves, Joan Garcia, Gavi, Desire Doue, Marquinhos, and Alejandro Balde grace the Olympic Stadium.
Does this mean the spectacle is diminished? Not entirely. Plenty of stars are still expected to shine, especially Lamine Yamal, who made a brilliant return from injury, needing only a minute to create the winning cross for Robert Lewandowski against Real Sociedad. His anticipated duel with Nuno Mendes on the flanks promises excitement. Furthermore, the absence of numerous PSG stars might provide an opportunity for Pedri and Frenkie De Jong to showcase their world-class midfield partnership.
While some individual talent may be absent, the contrasting systems and styles guarantee an intriguing tactical battle regardless of the specific players. How will Barcelona`s aggressive pressing, pinning opponents in their half, fare against PSG`s ability to play through the lines? For the reigning champions, their optimal performance relies on positional fluidity; can this be maintained with a significantly altered squad? Luis Enrique frequently lauded his players` selflessness last season; perhaps we will now witness an even more disciplined and cohesive unit, even without their star players.
Without these prominent names, the match might lack the individual brilliance of Dembele`s relentless energy or the creativity of Raphinha and Kvaratskhelia. However, as last season demonstrated, football often delivers unexpected narratives, proving that what you get can still be incredibly special, even if it`s not what was initially envisioned.
2. Is Arsenal`s Left Eight Adopting a More Cautious Role?
Arsenal`s acquisition of Martin Zubimendi earlier this year, after a protracted transfer saga that saw them outmaneuver Liverpool and Manchester City, appeared to solidify their midfield for years to come. Zubimendi was considered an upgrade in the single pivot role, allowing Declan Rice, who arrived from West Ham in 2023 and initially seemed destined for that deep-lying position, to continue his impactful work as Arsenal`s left-sided central midfielder. This role typically involved fewer touches, late runs into the box, significant off-ball running, and crucial high regains.
Preseason provided the first indications of a potential shift, with Mikel Arteta experimenting with a double pivot featuring both Rice and Zubimendi. Was this merely exploring alternative tactical setups, or a sign of things to come? Through the initial six Premier League matches, it seems Arsenal`s left-sided central midfielder is indeed operating deeper, with less frequent involvement in the attacking third.
Rice has featured as a starter in five of these matches (Mikel Merino filled in against Nottingham Forest, rewarded for his national team form). Analysis shows a decrease in the proportion of his touches in the attacking third, falling from 37% to 28%. His shots per 90 minutes have nearly halved, and he hasn`t recorded an open-play shot in the Premier League since the season`s opening fixture. Furthermore, his presence in Zone 14, the critical area just outside the penalty box, has significantly declined.
The explanation for this shift might be straightforward: Arsenal`s challenging fixture list. Facing Liverpool, Newcastle United, a revitalized Manchester United away, and Manchester City at home, these are matches where Rice`s deeper positioning could be a necessary adaptation, regardless of specific tactical instructions.
Other games haven`t provided extensive data to clarify the situation. Against both Leeds and Nottingham Forest, Arsenal suffered first-half shoulder injuries to Martin Odegaard. Considering Ethan Nwaneri`s tendency for risky possession, it`s plausible that Rice and Merino adopted more cautious positions to provide defensive cover. It`s not that Rice is prohibited from venturing forward; he did so effectively at St. James` Park. Even in this deeper capacity, he has performed better than often acknowledged. While this tactical adjustment might benefit Arsenal long-term, it remains uncertain whether it`s a deliberate strategic evolution or merely a response to recent challenging fixtures.
The prevailing suspicion leans towards the latter explanation. Clarity may emerge in the match against Olympiacos, where Arteta is expected to field his preferred midfield, with Odegaard having returned to training on Friday.
3. Can Chelsea Overcome Jose Mourinho`s Defensive Masterclass?
This inquiry hinges on two crucial assumptions: first, that Benfica will employ a frustratingly defensive strategy against Chelsea, and second, that they possess the capability to execute it effectively. The first assumption is difficult to gauge; Mourinho`s appointment as Benfica manager on September 18th provides little insight from matches against domestic opponents like Gil Vicente and Rio Ave regarding their approach to Chelsea. As for their defensive prowess, their performance against Qarabag suggested weaknesses. However, with Mourinho now at the helm, a master tactician renowned for organizing defensive structures, their capabilities might have significantly improved.
Assuming Benfica successfully implements a rigid defensive system, reminiscent of Mourinho`s iconic `parked bus` tactics, the challenge for Chelsea becomes: can they break it down? Enzo Maresca acknowledges the difficulty, stating, `I think from Benfica you can expect the way they are playing now, 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1 but you can also expect that they can play back five. So I expect two or three different things and we have a plan for these two or three things that I expect.` This indicates Chelsea is preparing for various tactical formations.
Despite Chelsea`s recent inconsistent form—a win against Lincoln, a draw, and three losses in their last five matches—Maresca`s team generally demonstrates good control when the scores are level or they are trailing, playing 11 against 11 (excluding matches against top-tier opponents like Bayern Munich). Their cautious build-up, though potentially frustrating for fans, minimizes exposure to counter-attacks, which would be Benfica`s primary offensive threat. Since the beginning of last season, Chelsea ranks a solid third in the Premier League for non-penalty expected goal difference (npxGD) when the score is tied. However, their cautiousness became problematic when they took the lead against Brighton on Saturday, seemingly easing off even before Trevoh Chalobah`s red card. Analytics further support this, placing Chelsea seventh for npxGD when leading, trailing Manchester City, Liverpool, and Arsenal. While other teams press for a decisive advantage, Maresca`s side often hesitates to deliver the killer blow.
Should inventive play be necessary to dismantle Benfica`s defense, Cole Palmer`s absence will undoubtedly be felt. However, if Maresca deploys Enzo Fernandez in an attacking midfield role, he can expect a degree of goal threat similar to that provided by a traditional number 10. Opta`s data for Fernandez in an advanced position, though limited, shows him averaging 0.54 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) and 0.1 expected assists when not anchored in a double pivot since the start of last season. His performances against Brighton and Aston Villa demonstrated a Lampard-esque knack for finding scoring positions inside the box, a vital attribute if Benfica opts for a deep defensive block, especially with Joao Pedro potentially unavailable. Chelsea will also rely on wingers capable of stretching the play wide to create crucial space for Fernandez and others. Players like Alejandro Garnacho and Pedro Neto possess this ability, and Estevao Willian is consistently demonstrating it.
Maresca spoke highly of Estevao, stating, “He`s doing very good, he`s doing very well. It`s not easy for a 17 or 18-year-old player to arrive in Europe at a big club like Chelsea and immediately showcase his quality. We are very happy with him. He`s a very good boy, and he provides the energy we need.”
Chelsea appears to possess all the necessary components to break down Benfica`s resistance. If their success manages to temper the inevitable hero-worship directed at Mourinho from the Stamford Bridge faithful, it would be an even sweeter victory for Maresca.
4. Why the Hunch for a Pafos Upset Against Bayern Munich?
This is likely a personal inclination rather than a shared sentiment. Most would confidently expect Bayern Munich, who have netted an astounding 28 goals in their initial seven games this season, to hand Champions League newcomers Pafos a harsh but essential lesson about top-tier European football. And in all likelihood, that expectation is correct.
Nevertheless, I have a persistent feeling that this season`s major Champions League upset is brewing. In my pre-tournament predictions, I backed Pafos for a win, and I`m sticking with that prediction this week. While Bayern is undoubtedly a strong team, capable of winning the Champions League without it being a major surprise, there`s an inexplicable factor that, despite my role as a football analyst, I can`t quite articulate.
Perhaps it`s the unexpectedly decent player roster at Pafos. Their resilience is undeniable, exemplified by holding Olympiacos scoreless for over an hour despite playing with ten men in their league phase opener; the Greek champions registered only 1.52 expected goals (xG) with their numerical advantage. Equally impressive is that Pafos restricted them to just one shot in the opening 25 minutes.
Beyond Pafos`s merits, there`s a subtle quality about Bayern that suggests vulnerability. Perhaps it`s that they no longer embody the peak efficiency, both on and off the pitch, that characterized them when German football was globally dominant 15 years ago. While some of their center-backs have shown improvement under Vincent Kompany, there`s a lingering sense of fragility. Whatever the underlying cause, this iteration of Bayern doesn`t feel like their most formidable teams – those capable of not winning every trophy, but rarely complicating matters for themselves.
This prediction might seem utterly absurd by Tuesday at 5 p.m. ET, or even as early as 3:10 p.m. Nevertheless, I have a distinct intuition about this match.
