Amidst a backdrop of recent disappointments, including a disastrous outing at Grimsby, Erling Haaland`s dominant performances, and ongoing transfer market frustrations, a quiet counter-narrative persisted: data suggested Manchester United was indeed improving under Ruben Amorim. Despite fan memes and widespread discontent, the underlying statistics hinted at genuine progress.
This wasn`t a statistical anomaly or a skewed sample size. Since April, United ranked fifth in the Premier League for expected goal difference (xGD). Even excluding penalties – like Bruno Fernandes`s subdued effort in the recent game – their metrics surpassed those inherited from Erik ten Hag, placing them seventh in the league. For a 15-game stretch, this represented a considerable improvement, suggesting a turning point after a difficult winter. Amorim himself had expressed optimism, believing better times were imminent.
Early in the season, Amorim`s team even recorded the highest expected goals (xG) over the first five matches – an impressive feat considering their challenging schedule against top clubs like Chelsea, Manchester City, and Arsenal. These formidable opponents likely contributed to their defensive struggles, conceding eight goals and 7.29 xG against. Overall, the statistics painted a picture of United moving in the right direction, a seemingly reasonable outcome for Amorim`s first eleven months.
However, let`s momentarily set aside the statistics. Does this improvement resonate with the fan experience? Did their abysmal 3-1 defeat to Brentford truly differ from the low points endured under Erik ten Hag, Ralf Rangnick, or David Moyes, beyond minor tactical positioning without the ball? The match felt like another catastrophic collapse, a recurring nightmare for United that seems to unfold every other week.
The post-match press conference evoked echoes of David Moyes`s infamous remarks. When asked how United could achieve the elusive consistency that had seen him fail to win consecutive Premier League games – let alone five straight – Amorim`s blunt response was, “Work on everything.”
He elaborated on his frustration: “Every Brentford goal was something we worked on during the week. We need to be better with the ball, have more control. We must understand that when decisions and momentum are against us, we still need to maintain possession.”
Amorim continued: “We can settle the game down; I know this team is capable of that. But when everything – individual moments, the penalty, the foul leading to the first goal – goes against us, we need greater character to control, calm, and ultimately improve our play.”
Amorim highlighted the need for improvements in United`s defending, attacking, and composure. This felt depressingly familiar, like an extended “Groundhog Day” for the past 12 years: fundamental issues left unaddressed, stopgap recruitment, and players who perform well in training but falter under pressure.
Despite a week dedicated to preparing for Brentford`s long balls and set-piece threats, the outcome was disastrous: chaos on set pieces and three goals, all originating from uncontested long passes exploited spaces behind Harry Maguire, Luke Shaw, and Matthijs De Ligt – areas they struggled to defend. While it`s tempting to blame Maguire for misjudging the offside trap on United`s opener, the club`s issues run deeper. The sequence saw Jordan Henderson pick up a loose ball outside the Brentford area, with no immediate counter-press, allowing him to launch a precise 70-yard pass to Igor Thiago`s run.
Post-match, Keith Andrews revealed a hardly secret strategy: Brentford anticipated exploiting space if they overwhelmed Bruno Fernandes and Manuel Ugarte in midfield with a three-man setup. He noted that United`s wide forwards could have tucked in to create a four-man midfield, but it was clear Brentford didn`t expect Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo to do so, highlighting a lack of tactical adaptability or effort.
In attack, the team`s performance belied the significant investment in Benjamin Sesko, Bryan Mbeumo, and Matheus Cunha, despite a purported 20% increase in non-penalty xG per game. Even if Fernandes had converted his penalty, it would have merely masked the performance`s fundamental flaws. Amorim felt Nathan Collins deserved a red card for pulling Mbeumo back – “The referee told me that Bryan was not in control of the ball, I think he was not in control of the ball because he was pulled,” he stated – yet conceded the outcome fairly reflected “playing Brentford`s game.” The missed penalty epitomized United`s struggle, being one of only four chances created in the entire second half while desperately chasing the game.
Sesko finally ended his scoring drought in his seventh game, but his goal, scored after three attempts at a loose ball, was his only notable contribution. Mbeumo, cutting in from the left, delivered some decent crosses, though one could forgive him for longing for the days of supplying Yoanne Wissa or Ivan Toney, or even Igor Thiago.
Matheus Cunha, conversely, appeared to have carried over his less desirable traits from Wolverhampton. While “hero ball” might have been excusable at Wolves, where he was often the sole attacking threat, today he seemed oblivious to the possibility of shooting from inside the penalty area. United already possesses a gifted attacker needing to refine his shot selection, yet Cunha was deployed deep in midfield, allowing Mikkel Damsgaard to bypass him. Half of United`s attacking sequences involved Cunha, yet four of these culminated in shots collectively valued at a mere 0.11 xG. It was unsurprising that Fernandes was visibly frustrated when Cunha failed to play him in for a rare first-half opportunity.
While data often tells a clear story – such as Cunha`s tendency to take speculative shots, hindering United`s rare forays into Brentford`s final third – sometimes it requires careful contextualization. For example, raw post-match xG figures might suggest United, with 2.11 xG against Brentford`s 1.99, “went down swinging.” This would be a misinterpretation. Sesko`s numerous attempts at a close-range shot artificially inflated his individual xG, contributing significantly to United`s total, alongside a penalty awarded seemingly out of nowhere.
This disconnect between data and reality likely applies to the aggregate statistics as well. Whatever positive narratives the data might suggest, it will need a far more compelling argument to convince anyone that it accurately reflects United`s current state, especially after the dismal performance witnessed.
