Erling Haaland has started the season in dominant form, scoring six goals in five games. The Norwegian striker appears as formidable as ever since his arrival in England three years ago. Tottenham is the only team that has managed to keep Haaland off the scoreboard, a result more indicative of a lackluster Manchester City team performance than Haaland`s individual display, as he was uncharacteristically forced into a creative role.
Haaland continues to prove himself as the game`s premier pure goalscorer, a fact well recognized by Pep Guardiola. Manchester City`s attacking strategy increasingly prioritizes creating shooting opportunities specifically for him. In their first four Premier League matches, Haaland accounted for 19 of the team`s 50 shots, a significant 38% share. This marks a substantial increase from last season`s average of just over 21% of chances falling to him, highlighting his central role in City`s offense.
Manchester City`s reliance on Haaland is even more evident in their expected goals (xG) statistics. After four league games, City accumulated 8.47 xG, with an astounding 5.47 (nearly two-thirds) attributed to Haaland. While some regression to the mean is expected over a larger sample size, this dominance isn`t merely coincidental. With Kevin De Bruyne absent, Phil Foden seeking form, and other attackers showcasing potential more than consistent output, City`s dependence on their star striker is arguably at an all-time high.
Facing this formidable scoring threat is, predictably, an equally unyielding defense: Arsenal`s. Their defensive prowess is set to be further bolstered by the imminent return of William Saliba, recovering from a twisted ankle sustained before the international break. Overall, Arsenal`s defenders and midfielders have proven highly effective in containing Haaland and the rest of the Manchester City attack.
Excluding the chaotic second half of last season`s 2-2 draw at the Etihad—where Arsenal nearly held onto a lead despite Leandro Trossard`s early red card—Haaland has only managed six shots across three and a half games against the Gunners, with just two on target. While both those on-target shots resulted in goals, a crucial factor in Arsenal`s five-game unbeaten streak against their title rivals has been their ability to nullify Haaland`s typical impact.
“There are many aspects you need to get right when facing a player who requires minimal space, time, or specific situations to create significant chances, especially near the penalty area,” Arteta stated in his pre-match press conference. “Sometimes, preventing the source is the most effective approach, and we must replicate that.”
Arteta`s assessment of Arsenal`s strategy is accurate. In Haaland`s initial two encounters against the team whose title aspirations he significantly impacted, he recorded 36 and 35 touches respectively. However, over the past two seasons, his average touches against Arsenal have dropped to just 19. Notably, in last season`s 5-1 defeat at the Emirates, his last touch was his 55th-minute equalizer. With Gabriel and Saliba embracing the physical challenge, Arsenal demonstrates no fear of City`s star forward; indeed, they seem eager to assert their dominance.
While Haaland`s attacking prowess has sharpened this season, Arsenal`s defensive strength has also intensified. Following a difficult start against Manchester United, Arteta`s team has adopted a near-impenetrable defensive approach without possession. Their last four opponents have found it almost impossible to breach their defense or force David Raya into an open-play save. Despite ongoing debates about their offensive threat beyond set pieces, Arsenal has undeniably fortified their defense; the only open-play shots conceded in their last four matches were two from Liverpool around the hour mark at Anfield. Remarkably, the sole goal Arsenal has conceded all season remains Dominik Szoboszlai`s spectacular free-kick.
Arsenal`s xG conceded from open play in their last four games paints a stark picture: 0.13 against Athletic Club, 0.06 against Nottingham Forest, 0.33 against Liverpool, and 0.07 against Leeds. To call this a “lockdown” defense is an understatement; it`s more akin to elite NBA defenders facing a junior varsity team. Even as Arteta desires “more” from his squad, he recognizes this defensive solidity as “a very big foundation to achieve what we want.”
What makes these defensive performances even more remarkable is that nearly three of these displays occurred without William Saliba, who typically anchors their defense in possession and covers vast areas. In his stead, Cristhian Mosquera, a $17.5 million signing from Valencia, has shone. The 21-year-old was highly regarded at his previous club for his eagerness to learn and his strength in duels, qualities that have enabled his rapid adaptation to the Premier League.
Explaining Mosquera`s impact, Arteta stated, “Firstly, because he`s very good. Credit to our scouting department and Andrea [Berta, Arsenal`s new sporting director] for identifying and securing him. Again, we`ve conceded no goals with him, and as a young player, he`s incredibly focused, determined, and clear about wanting to come here to play and earn his spot. What he`s achieving in that position so early is truly impressive.”
Mosquera`s excellent form also underscores the effectiveness of Arsenal`s system, where a deliberately slower pace of ball progression ensures that should a turnover occur, the defense is well-prepared to neutralize the threat. While this methodical approach doesn`t always garner widespread praise for Arteta, the alternative, at its worst, can resemble Haaland effortlessly dissecting a Manchester United defense, even one supposedly featuring three center-backs.
Arsenal`s system consistently delivers results in high-stakes matches. It effectively neutralizes even the most potent strikers and continues to function robustly, even without a key defensive component. While Haaland may be performing at his absolute peak, Arsenal`s defense also appears to be in top form. Historical data from the past two years suggests that if this defensive solidity holds on Sunday, Manchester City will face a significant challenge to secure a victory.
