The first North London derby held outside the United Kingdom highlights a chasm between Arsenal and Tottenham arguably wider than it has been in half a century. One must look back nearly 50 years to the 1977-78 season, when Spurs temporarily played in the second tier, to find a similar positional disparity separating the two fierce rivals from Seven Sisters Road.
Arsenal concluded the 2024-25 season in a familiar second-place spot, reinforcing their position at the top. Tottenham, however, navigated a peculiar year that saw them flirt with both glory and significant struggle. They ultimately won the Europa League but finished a disappointing 17th in the Premier League, barely escaping relegation. This domestic performance cost Ange Postecoglou his job, with Thomas Frank quickly appointed as his replacement.
For the former Brentford manager, an ideal way to immediately endear himself to the Spurs faithful would be to snap the club`s six-game winless streak against their great adversaries, even if it`s just a preseason encounter. While the North London derby traditionally favors the home side—Arsenal, for instance, has been unbeaten in Premier League derbies at the Emirates for 15 years—Spurs currently face a three-game losing streak at their own stadium. Perhaps the neutral ground in Hong Kong will provide the impetus needed for them to compete with the Gunners in the more significant challenges ahead. As their new boss acknowledged, this match serves as an important early measure of Tottenham’s progress this summer.
Frank expressed his sentiments on the upcoming match: “I think it`s a great challenge besides being our biggest rivals and the first North London Derby outside the UK. It`s also right now one of the best teams, I must say unfortunately, in the world. We also need to be honest. In that way it`s going to be a big test, but it`s more than a test as against Arsenal it`s not only a friendly. Of course it`s a game we will do everything we can to win.”
The overarching question remains: can Spurs realistically bridge a staggering 36-point gap? What are the true limits of what can be expected from Frank`s new team, and does their potential maximum even come close to Arsenal’s absolute minimum performance?
Arsenal`s Realistic Floor
It`s a fair contention that Arsenal’s performance last season, despite securing second place, wasn`t significantly better than a potential lower-end outcome for Mikel Arteta’s side. They were severely impacted by injuries, with key attacking players like Gabriel Jesus, Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli, and Martin Odegaard each missing nearly a third or more of the league starts. In such challenging circumstances, the Gunners quickly fell too far behind Liverpool to mount a compelling title challenge. Yet, even with some wobbles, they were never genuinely at risk of slipping out of the top four.
Had Arteta commanded greater depth, the Gunners might have sustained pressure on the champions. New sporting director Andrea Berta has proactively addressed this by acquiring a sextet of new signings, ensuring the presence of two experienced, international-level players for almost every position. The only area where this might not strictly apply is Martin Odegaard’s role, where promising young academy talent Ethan Nwaneri currently serves as backup – a prospect certainly not to be overlooked.
Arsenal`s ceiling is clear: a Premier League title or Champions League glory. But how far could they fall? Discounting highly improbable “black swan” events, it’s difficult to construct a strong argument for the Gunners drifting outside the top four. A third-place finish seems quite achievable even if Arsenal isn`t at their peak, especially given the formidable strength of Manchester City and Liverpool.
Chelsea could also emerge as a strong contender, having finished only five points behind Arsenal last season with a similar expected goal difference. Should Newcastle retain key players like Alexander Isak and begin the season robustly, the Gunners might find themselves closer to the Champions League qualification bubble. Nevertheless, it’s challenging to envision a scenario where their performance deteriorates beyond that.
Tottenham`s Realistic Ceiling
Assessing Tottenham`s previous season is complex. For roughly the first third of the campaign, Postecoglou’s team consistently won matches where they were dominant but struggled to gain points from closely contested games. This was followed by a brutal wave of defensive injuries—even more severe than Arsenal`s attacking injury crisis—leading to weeks where it was a rare luxury to have two regular back-five players fit. By the time the injury crisis eased, Premier League hopes were dashed, but the Europa League presented a tantalizing alternative. Postecoglou prudently chose to sacrifice some domestic games, prioritizing silverware and a pathway to the Champions League.
However, the cumulative league story is not encouraging. While 17th place might overstate Spurs’ absolute failings, their expected goal difference ranked 15th in the division, and the 65 goals conceded marked a significant defensive vulnerability, surpassed only by Wolves and the three relegated teams.
Tottenham often played like a team capable of scoring three goals but equally prone to conceding four, and their summer transfer activity has done little to fundamentally alter this perception. Mathys Tel`s loan has been made permanent, and Mohamed Kudus stands as the marquee signing from West Ham. Investment in strengthening the defense appears to be a long-term strategy with additions like Kota Takai. Crucially, the deep-lying midfielder, a position desperately needed last season, has not yet arrived.
It is reasonable to anticipate that a coach of Frank’s caliber will enhance Spurs’ defensive solidity; his Brentford side, notably, allowed fewer expected goals per game over the past four seasons than his new club. Merely improved fitness should bring their defensive output closer to that of other `big six` clubs. But can Tottenham genuinely hope to surpass their greatest rivals?
Bookmakers tend to disagree, generally ranking Spurs as around the eighth most likely team to qualify for the Champions League. This seems a fair assessment of their current squad strength. They possess bright young talents like Destiny Udogie and Lucas Bergvall, who could evolve into key players for a future top-four team, alongside seasoned veterans such as Heung-min Son (assuming rumors of a move to Los Angeles do not materialize) and Richarlison, who still have much to offer. Among them, perhaps only a couple of key players are truly entering their prime at 24, and even the most promising of them, Micky van de Ven, struggles with consistent availability.
Perhaps they will secure 38 games from both van de Ven and Cristian Romero. Perhaps Son will defy the natural effects of aging, and Frank’s coaching acumen will compensate for the midfield’s defensive limitations. In essence, a top ten percentile season for Tottenham. What, then, might their ceiling truly be? Realistically, it might be on the cusp of Champions League contention, an objective that would be more attainable if a few more of the established `big six` clubs were to underperform.
So, could Tottenham`s absolute best season propel them higher than Arsenal`s absolute worst? Probably not in a generally normal season. It would require an exceptionally strong Tottenham campaign to coincide with a series of extraordinary misfortunes for Arsenal. However, this is North London, a region known for delivering unpredictable results, like multiple 5-2 derby comebacks in the same year. Strange things, indeed, can happen.
