The UEFA Champions League has returned, bringing with it arguably the most daunting challenge of the year for this writer: forecasting the outcome of every single match in the tournament`s league phase. This involves meticulously analyzing 144 football games to construct a projected ranking of Europe`s top clubs. One might wonder what similar feats others accomplished in their daily work.
My qualifications for undertaking this endeavor are straightforward: last season, I accurately predicted a Manchester City-Real Madrid one-two finish, Leipzig`s strong showing in the top eight, and the early exits of Brest and Lille from the league phase. While my predictions for PSV Eindhoven and AC Milan landing in the 13th/14th spots were also correct, it`s probably wise to exercise caution before placing significant wagers based on these forecasts.
Matchweek 1
- Athletic Club 1, Arsenal 2
- PSV Eindhoven 1, Union St. Gilloise 2
- Real Madrid 3, Marseille 0
- Juventus 2, Borussia Dortmund 1
- Benfica 4, Qarabag 0
- Tottenham 2, Villarreal 2
- Slavia Prague 1, Bodo/Glimt 0
- Olympiacos 3, Pafos 1
- Bayern Munich 2, Chelsea 1
- Ajax 1, Inter 2
- Liverpool 2, Atletico Madrid 0
- Paris Saint-Germain 3, Atalanta 1
- Copenhagen 1, Bayer Leverkusen 0
- Club Brugge 0, Monaco 0
- Newcastle 1, Barcelona 3
- Manchester City 2, Napoli 0
- Eintracht Frankfurt 1, Galatasaray 0
- Sporting 2, Kairat 0
The initial fixtures of the Champions League largely unfold as anticipated. Dominant teams secure victories in the high-profile clashes, with Liverpool`s comprehensive 2-0 defeat of Atletico Madrid standing out as a particularly harsh result. Concerns inevitably arise regarding the performance of Diego Simeone`s squad in the coming weeks, given their sluggish start to the season.
Many teams still finding their rhythm face significant challenges in these early encounters. Notably, Newcastle`s offensive capabilities prove insufficient against a well-oiled Barcelona machine. These early-season struggles culminate in one significant upset during the first week: Kasper Hjulmand`s Bayer Leverkusen, lacking time to fully cohere, suffer a surprising defeat to Copenhagen.
Matchweek 2
- Kairat 1, Real Madrid 4
- Atalanta 2, Club Brugge 0
- Pafos 1, Bayern Munich 0
- Chelsea 2, Benfica 0
- Inter 1, Slavia Prague 0
- Galatasaray 2, Liverpool 2
- Atletico Madrid 1, Eintracht Frankfurt 1
- Marseille 0, Ajax 0
- Bodo/Glimt 1, Tottenham 3
- Qarabag 1, Copenhagen 2
- Union St. Gilloise 1, Newcastle 3
- Borussia Dortmund 2, Athletic Club 1
- Barcelona 2, Paris Saint-Germain 3
- Monaco 1, Manchester City 2
- Bayer Leverkusen 2, PSV Eindhoven 2
- Arsenal 3, Olympiacos 1
- Villarreal 1, Juventus 1
- Napoli 2, Sporting 0
Historically, major upsets often occurred early in the Champions League`s former group stage format. This is logical, as even extensive scouting by Europe`s elite clubs struggles to anticipate the exact tactics of an opponent like Kairat when facing Real Madrid. While the Kazakh team isn`t quite strong enough for an upset, Pafos demonstrates its capability, boasting talented players. Furthermore, it appears that at some point in their recent past, Bayern Munich lost their knack for consistently avoiding such disastrous defeats.
The second matchweek also features the most anticipated fixture of the league phase: Barcelona versus Paris Saint-Germain, a dream final for any neutral fan. Despite the scoreline, both teams exhibit stronger defensive performances than it might indicate. However, PSG`s sheer offensive power ultimately ensures their victory, regardless of the venue where Barca plays in late September.
Matchweek 3
- Barcelona 3, Olympiacos 0
- Kairat 1, Pafos 1
- Union St. Gilloise 1, Inter 2
- Copenhagen 1, Borussia Dortmund 3
- Bayer Leverkusen 0, Paris Saint-Germain 2
- Villarreal 0, Manchester City 2
- Arsenal 1, Atletico Madrid 0
- Newcastle 2, Benfica 1
- PSV Eindhoven 1, Napoli 1
- Galatasaray 2, Bodo/Glimt 0
- Athletic Club 4, Qarabag 1
- Bayern Munich 3, Club Brugge 0
- Chelsea 3, Ajax 1
- Real Madrid 2, Juventus 0
- Eintracht Frankfurt 0, Liverpool 1
- Atalanta 1, Slavia Prague 1
- Sporting 1, Marseille 0
- Monaco 2, Tottenham 1
Atletico Madrid officially finds itself in a precarious situation. Their attempt to wear down Arsenal predictably fails. By the third week of the league phase, the last thing a team wants is to be the subject of negative attention, yet Atleti, alongside Bayer Leverkusen, seems to be vying for that very spotlight.
| Pos. | Team | W | D | L | GD | Pts. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bayer Leverkusen | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 | Ajax | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 31 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 32 | Marseille | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 33 | Kairat | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 34 | Club Brugge | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 35 | Bodo/Glimt | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Qarabag | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
Compounding the troubles for Los Colchoneros, their city rivals are dominating. Xabi Alonso`s squad is in stellar form, accumulating a perfect nine points from nine. Their victory against Juventus stands out as perhaps their most compelling performance yet, showcasing their manager`s philosophy of disciplined control infused with an exhilarating attacking flair. They appear destined for a top-eight finish, with further success anticipated.
Matchweek 4
- Slavia Prague 0, Arsenal 2
- Napoli 2, Eintracht Frankfurt 2
- Paris Saint-Germain 3, Bayern Munich 1
- Liverpool 2, Real Madrid 2
- Juventus 1, Sporting 0
- Atletico Madrid 2, Union St. Gilloise 1
- Tottenham 1, Copenhagen 0
- Bodo/Glimt 2, Monaco 1
- Olympiacos 0, PSV Eindhoven 0
- Qarabag 0, Chelsea 3
- Pafos 2, Villarreal 4
- Inter 3, Kairat 0
- Manchester City 4, Borussia Dortmund 2
- Club Brugge 1, Barcelona 3
- Benfica 1, Bayer Leverkusen 0
- Marseille 2, Atalanta 1
- Ajax 3, Galatasaray 2
- Newcastle 1, Athletic Club 0
Halfway through the league phase, four teams have achieved a flawless record. For Arsenal and Inter, this might be attributed to a less demanding schedule so far, while Manchester City is collecting points despite not always appearing to be their formidable selves. PSG, on the other hand, has simply maintained their exceptional form.
Concurrently, all English teams are positioned within the top 10, closely trailing Arsenal. Both Chelsea and Newcastle occupy spots just inside the top eight, each with three victories and one loss, while Liverpool`s thrilling draw against Real Madrid makes them the sole team with two wins and two draws after four matches. Thomas Frank successfully leads Tottenham past his Danish counterparts from Copenhagen, and Spurs appear to have rebounded from their disappointing outing in Monaco.
Matchweek 5
- Ajax 1, Benfica 1
- Galatasaray 1, Union St. Gilloise 0
- Chelsea 1, Barcelona 2
- Borussia Dortmund 1, Villarreal 0
- Manchester City 2, Bayer Leverkusen 0
- Bodo/Glimt 1, Juventus 3
- Marseille 2, Newcastle 2
- Slavia Prague 1, Athletic Club 0
- Napoli 2, Qarabag 0
- Pafos 0, Monaco 2
- Copenhagen 2, Kairat 1
- Arsenal 1, Bayern Munich 1
- Olympiacos 0, Real Madrid 2
- Atletico Madrid 1, Inter 2
- Liverpool 3, PSV Eindhoven 1
- Paris Saint-Germain 2, Tottenham 0
- Eintracht Frankfurt 1, Atalanta 0
- Sporting 0, Club Brugge 0
After five games, only four teams remain winless. Club Brugge has faced a particularly challenging draw, having played all their Pot One and Two opponents by December, with matches against Monaco and Sporting offering little respite. Bayer Leverkusen might find relief later in their schedule, but they must accelerate their performance, currently tied with Kairat on a single point. Even perfect play from here may not suffice; last season, 10 points weren`t enough to secure a top-24 spot. While this trend shouldn`t persist, Hjulmand`s team faces an uphill battle.
Pressure is mounting on Bayern Munich, who find themselves in a disappointing 16th place following a draw at the Emirates Stadium. This season is certainly not unfolding as a memorable one for German football, with none of their representatives currently ranking within the top 10 of the league phase.
Matchweek 6
- Kairat 0, Olympiacos 1
- Bayern Munich 3, Sporting 0
- Atalanta 1, Chelsea 1
- Inter 0, Liverpool 2
- Barcelona 3, Eintracht Frankfurt 1
- PSV Eindhoven 1, Atletico Madrid 1
- Union St. Gilloise 2, Marseille 1
- Tottenham 2, Slavia Prague 0
- Monaco 3, Galatasaray 1
- Villarreal 2, Copenhagen 0
- Qarabag 2, Ajax 1
- Real Madrid 2, Manchester City 0
- Borussia Dortmund 3, Bodo/Glimt 0
- Athletic Club 1, Paris Saint-Germain 2
- Bayer Leverkusen 1, Newcastle 0
- Club Brugge 0, Arsenal 2
- Benfica 1, Napoli 1
- Juventus 2, Pafos 0
As the festive season approaches, contrary to Paul Young`s famous song, there is indeed cause for concern if you are Ajax, Atalanta, or Atletico Madrid. With only five points accumulated, these teams will need a significant upturn in form heading into 2026. A minimum of two victories might be required for them to advance to the knockout stages.
Concurrently, a distinct separation is beginning to emerge between the top nine teams and those who might contend for a spot in the knockout playoffs. A strong group comprising PSG, Real Madrid, Arsenal, Barcelona, Manchester City, and Inter appears well-positioned to secure direct advancement. With Liverpool`s recent victory and a favorable remaining schedule, they too are expected to claim a direct qualification spot.
| Pos. | Team | W | D | L | GD | Pts. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Inter | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 8 | Juventus | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 11 | Bayern Munich | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 12 | Monaco | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
| 13 | Tottenham | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 14 | Newcastle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 15 | Napoli | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
Matchweek 7
- Kairat 0, Club Brugge 2
- Bodo/Glimt 1, Manchester City 3
- Real Madrid 2, Monaco 1
- Inter 1, Arsenal 1
- Tottenham 2, Borussia Dortmund 2
- Sporting 1, Paris Saint-Germain 0
- Olympiacos 1, Bayer Leverkusen 2
- Villarreal 2, Ajax 0
- Copenhagen 1, Napoli 2
- Qarabag 1, Eintracht Frankfurt 3
- Galatasaray 2, Atletico Madrid 0
- Bayern Munich 3, Union St. Gilloise 1
- Chelsea 2, Pafos 0
- Marseille 0, Liverpool 2
- Slavia Prague 1, Barcelona 4
- Atalanta 2, Athletic Club 1
- Juventus 1, Benfica 1
- Newcastle 2, PSV Eindhoven 0
Following these results, six of the top eight positions are now solidified, marking a notable shift from last season where numerous top-table positions remained undecided until the final matchdays. What accounts for this change? Essentially, a greater number of high-caliber teams have performed exceptionally well. While Manchester City, Real Madrid, and PSG previously stumbled into the knockouts, at least one of them will undoubtedly have experienced the difficulties that such a path entails.
The true drama on the final day will center on the fight for 24th place. While no giants like Manchester City or PSG are battling for survival this time, Atletico Madrid, overwhelmed by the intense atmosphere in Istanbul, finds itself in a precarious position. With a maximum possible tally of eight points and three teams currently ahead of them for 24th, it appears that things are poised to unravel for Simeone`s squad.
Matchweek 8
- PSV Eindhoven 2, Bayern Munich 3
- Napoli 2, Chelsea 1
- Benfica 1, Real Madrid 3
- Borussia Dortmund 0, Inter 0
- Liverpool 3, Qarabag 0
- Barcelona 2, Copenhagen 1
- Manchester City 2, Galatasaray 2
- Bayer Leverkusen 3, Villarreal 0
- Arsenal 4, Kairt 0
- Union St. Gilloise 2, Atalanta 1
- Club Brugge 2, Marseille 2
- Eintracht Frankfurt 1, Tottenham 1
- Monaco 1, Juventus 0
- Atletico Madrid 3, Bodo/Glimt 0
- Athletic Club 2, Sporting 1
- Ajax 2, Olympiacos 0
- Paris Saint-Germain 4, Newcastle 1
- Pafos 1, Slavia Prague 0
If you`ve been diligently tracking the table mentally, congratulations are in order. However, you might be puzzled: how can Napoli, ostensibly with nothing left to play for, defeat Chelsea, who are contending for a top-eight spot? Napoli, in fact, has a powerful motivator: Antonio Conte`s simmering resentment towards his former clubs. That, it seems, is worth a consistent three points.
Having clarified that point, let`s now turn our attention to the final table, accompanied by some concluding observations.
| Pos. | Team | W | D | L | GD | Pts. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Madrid | 7 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 22 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | PSG | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 5 | Arsenal | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Manchester City | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 7 | Inter | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 8 | Bayern Munich | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 9 | Napoli | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Juventus | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 13 | Monaco | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 14 | Newcastle | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 15 | Tottenham | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 16 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 17 | Galatasaray | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 18 | Villarreal | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 19 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 20 | Sporting | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | Benfica | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 22 | Union St.Gilloise | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 23 | Copenhagen | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 24 | Atalanta | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 25 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 26 | Ajax | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 27 | Olympiacos | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 28 | Slavia Prague | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 29 | Pafos | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 30 | Athletic Club | 2 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 31 | Marseille | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 32 | Club Brugge | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 33 | PSV Eindhoven | 0 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 34 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 7 | -14 | 3 |
| 35 | Qarabag | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 36 | Kairat | 0 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 1 |
Indeed, Atletico Madrid`s failure to qualify is by the narrowest of margins: a single goal scored. The struggle for 24th place will undoubtedly extend to the very last moments. The competition is so incredibly tight that a slight shift in goal difference for Athletic Club—perhaps a victory in Prague or a draw at St. James` Park—would comfortably see them through to the knockout stages.
This table once again underscores the detrimental impact of draws in an eight-game league format. For instance, in the 2024-25 season, Bologna suffered only one more defeat than Borussia Dortmund`s three. Yet, the German club secured five more victories, finishing 10th, while Bologna, with just one additional win, ended up in 28th.
Another striking observation is the high number of points accumulated by teams at the top of the table. While predictive expected points models often understate the performance of the league`s top teams, it`s also true that last season, only Liverpool surpassed the 20-point threshold. This year, reaching 20 points merely secures a spot in the top five. This phenomenon suggests that many of Europe`s premier clubs are performing at a significantly higher level, while others, like Manchester City and Arsenal, have benefited from favorable draws and scheduling.
Will these predictions ultimately prove accurate? Almost certainly not. However, we will revisit these forecasts at the midway point (and likely err once more). Such is the captivating unpredictability of the Champions League; it seldom conforms to expectations.
