Predicting the 2025 Ballon d’Or: Top Contenders and Award Picks

The highly anticipated shortlist for the Ballon d`Or is set to be revealed this Thursday, identifying the elite footballers who are in contention for global football`s most coveted individual accolade.

With the exception of the Kopa Trophy, the majority of these prestigious awards are determined by a panel of 100 distinguished journalists representing the leading football nations worldwide. This exclusive group of voters changes annually, and this year, our publication was not invited to participate. Despite this, we are committed to sharing our expert predictions.

Let`s clarify our methodology. Our predictions mirror the official voting process: we`ll present a top 10 for both the Men`s and Women`s Ballon d`Or, a top three for the Yashin Trophy (best goalkeeper), a top two for Coach of the Year, and our selection for Club of the Year. As we haven`t won a Ballon d`Or ourselves, we won`t be opining on the Kopa Trophy winner. Our assessment is based on performances during the 2024-25 season, specifically from August 1, 2024, to July 31, 2025. This timeframe means events like the Women`s Euros are strongly considered, as is the Club World Cup, though we acknowledge the latter`s contentious role in defining individual excellence.

For those who have followed our recent analysis, our top pick for the Men`s Ballon d`Or will come as no surprise. Mohamed Salah`s position as the leading contender has, to say the least, sparked considerable debate. While the Egyptian forward didn`t secure a Champions League title, much of his most impactful play occurred early in the season, paving the way for Liverpool`s unexpected dominant league victory. Ultimately, it`s difficult to dispute a season tally of 34 goals and 23 assists, especially when he equaled Premier League records previously set during 42-game seasons.

In terms of pure statistical output, Barcelona`s Raphinha is a close competitor, having concluded the 2024-25 season with accomplishments few would have foreseen. Although he may have had more opportunities, the Brazilian remarkably equaled Cristiano Ronaldo`s record of 21 goal contributions in a single Champions League campaign – a benchmark many considered unattainable. As La Liga`s standout performer, Raphinha would be a deserving recipient, but there`s a question of whether the emerging talent of Lamine Yamal could divide the votes from Barcelona supporters.

However, none of the previously mentioned players are the outright favorites according to bookmakers. Betting on Ousmane Dembele, the standout performer in Paris Saint-Germain`s Champions League victory, would require a substantial wager for a significant return. Ultimately, for many, it is the trophies and medals that hold the most weight.

It will be interesting to observe if this emphasis on silverware extends to the Women`s Ballon d`Or voting. Aitana Bonmati remains the frontrunner, and it`s challenging to argue against her or Alexia Putellas as the world`s best. However, in pivotal matches this season, these Barcelona teammates faced defeat. This raises the question: should an English player from Arsenal, such as Alessia Russo or Leah Williamson, be considered the world`s best based on their performances in the Champions League and Euros finals?

There`s no single correct answer to this dilemma. This complexity is precisely what makes the Ballon d`Or debate so captivating, though it often becomes contentious and at times, even absurd (a nod to disgruntled Real Madrid fans). Given football is a team sport, should the top individual award go to the player who contributed most to the most successful team, or simply the one with the highest individual output? It`s akin to the 2017 debate between Russell Westbrook and Kawhi Leonard. The decision is more art than science, but a choice must be made. So, here are our projected winners for the 2025 Ballons d`Or:

Men`s predictions by James Benge; Women`s predictions by Pardeep Cattry.