It`s easy to understand Chelsea`s squad-building philosophy over the last three years, as outlined by Todd Boehly on multiple occasions, including in February this year. Boehly stated the aim is to identify and assemble “a portfolio of younger players that are going to be consistent and reliable and have the potential to be together for a very long time.”
Regardless of one`s opinion on the principle or execution of this strategy, it seems contradictory for a club focused on building a young, enduring core to even contemplate losing Noni Madueke. Yet, this is precisely what appears to be happening, with reports suggesting Chelsea are in talks with Arsenal regarding the sale of the England international. Sources indicate the potential transfer fee could reach close to $70 million, almost double the amount paid when he joined from PSV Eindhoven in January 2023.
Madueke is understood to have agreed personal terms with Arsenal, but discussions between the clubs are reportedly still in the early stages. This suggests there might still be an opportunity for Chelsea to reconsider what seems to be their current direction on this transfer. Selling Madueke would seemingly run counter to a team-building process that has recently shown signs of progress over the past 18 months, culminating in the team reaching the final of the Club World Cup.
Transferring him to Arsenal, in particular, could prove to be a significant error.
Madueke on the Rise
By the conclusion of the 2024-25 season, Noni Madueke had clearly demonstrated he was on the verge of becoming a truly impressive winger. While his raw statistics – 11 goals and five assists across 46 appearances in all competitions – might not immediately catch the eye of every scouting department, a closer look reveals a player making a significant leap forward. His finishing in the top flight last season was somewhat below expectation, converting 9.64 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) into seven actual goals. After netting a hat-trick early in the season against Wolves, goals didn`t flow as freely, but it wasn`t for lack of trying. The same pattern was evident with his assists, providing three in the league from 4.2 expected goals assisted (xAG).
One of the most critical attributes any club, including Arsenal or other potential suitors, seeks in a 23-year-old wide forward is their ability to get shots away. For attacking players, perhaps no trait is more valuable: even if the ball isn`t finding the net, are they consistently getting into goal-scoring positions? Madueke excelled here, averaging three and a half shots per 90 minutes in the Premier League. No other player in his position took more, not even Bukayo Saka or Mohamed Salah. Crucially, these weren`t speculative efforts; his non-penalty expected goals per shot significantly increased from 0.055 to 0.12, roughly aligning with the league average. The graphic below illustrates this improvement, showing a much higher proportion of his shots originating from inside the penalty area.
Watching his attempts reveals the effort involved in Madueke testing goalkeepers. Early in the season, goals came more easily in a more transition-focused Chelsea attack, but as Enzo Maresca`s tactical approach became more ingrained, Madueke often had to beat defenders to create his shooting opportunities. The key point is that he succeeded in doing so. The ball might not have gone in for him during the 3-1 victory over Liverpool in early May, but the champions were fortunate, finding no real answer to Chelsea`s number 11 on either flank.
Overall, Madueke`s non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes dramatically increased last season, climbing from 0.15 to 0.42. This latter figure was surpassed by only three other wingers: Salah, Luis Diaz, and Brennan Johnson. Crucially, the latter two do not offer the same level of ball-carrying ability as Madueke. Once again, Chelsea`s right winger, often considered a third attacking option behind Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson, ranks among the Premier League`s elite performers in this area. The wide players with more progressive carries than Madueke? Only the Manchester City duo of Savinho and Jeremy Doku. Those who watch games at the Etihad Stadium won`t need reminding that this wing pair combined didn`t match Madueke`s Premier League goal tally.
While Madueke may not be the league`s best crosser and his passing game still needs refinement, it is undeniable that in 2024-25 he consistently performed actions that positively contributed to winning outcomes. The statistics support this. His expected possession value added – a metric that quantifies the positive impact of each on-ball action on a team`s chances of scoring – is exceptionally high for a player who takes so many shots.
Some readers will undoubtedly rely on the “eye test.” While visual assessment might not place Madueke among the league`s top wide forwards for everyone, the data tells a different story. If he occasionally appears to run into dead ends or drive at full-backs he can`t bypass, making questionable decisions in his attempt to create something, well, that`s often the nature of playing as a winger.
Why Would Chelsea Let Him Go?
Considering his clear improvements, why would Chelsea even entertain discussions with their rivals about Madueke? The 23-year-old has faced public criticism regarding his attitude since his arrival at Stamford Bridge. Maresca dropped the player twice in December, and his post-match comments after a win against Aston Villa were the kind managers typically deliver only when they feel compelled to speak out.
Maresca commented, “In the moment that he starts to score or assist and is happy, he starts to drop a little bit. The reason he was not playing is because I don’t like the way he trained. He has to understand that he has to train every day good, he has to be ambitious. If he scores one tonight, he has to go for the second one, the third one. He has to be ambitious, to give more assists. But overall, he’s doing great, he’s doing fantastic.”
These incidents weren`t confined to last season; attempting to take a penalty from Cole Palmer in April of the previous year also drew negative attention. However, even those most skeptical about Madueke`s attitude would have to admit it didn`t prevent the youngster from improving significantly over the past season.
There is, of course, another argument for selling Madueke: the substantial fee received could be reinvested in acquiring superior players elsewhere. Taking $70 million to $80 million for their number 11 might allow them to pursue someone like Rodrygo or attempt to sign Bradley Barcola from Paris Saint-Germain. This could be viewed as smart business. But is exchanging Madueke for Jamie Gittens truly an upgrade? The former Borussia Dortmund player is younger and could potentially address Chelsea`s left-wing issues, but the 20-year-old averaged only 0.31 npxG+xAG per 90 in last season’s Bundesliga. While Joao Pedro adds options for Maresca, it`s difficult to argue his value solely based on scoring many penalties at Brighton.
Selling Madueke might ultimately prove successful for Chelsea. Willian Estevao showed promise in his recent match against his future club Palmeiras, despite the defeat. Gittens might also develop into a star. However, it`s crucial for Chelsea to remember the point made by former Liverpool director of research Ian Graham four years ago: even with deals supported by high confidence levels across various factors, the success rate of any new signing is essentially a 50-50 proposition.
Madueke`s acquisition, in contrast, has already delivered value: a relatively low-cost signing from a second-tier European league who has played over 2,000 minutes for a team aiming for Champions League qualification. There are no guarantees he will continue his dramatic upward trajectory from last season, but if he maintains development on anything resembling that path, he is an outstanding player – one who could become a key figure among the “portfolio” of stars Boehly envisioned.
