Australian skipper Pat Cummins continues his rehabilitation, with crucial decisions regarding his return to bowling and availability for the Ashes series yet to be made.
The likelihood of Australian captain Pat Cummins being available for the initial Ashes Test is diminishing, as he has not yet received clearance to resume bowling activities, with the series opener in Perth just over six weeks away.
Reports from News Limited and Nine newspapers on Wednesday indicated that while Cummins` recent lumbar bone stress scan showed some progress, it was insufficient for him to be cleared to bowl.
Although Cricket Australia has refrained from official comment, sources suggest Cummins` rehabilitation is advancing. However, crucial decisions regarding his bowling return and his overall involvement in the first Test and the entire Ashes series are still pending.
Cummins hasn`t bowled since Australia`s Test match in Jamaica in July. Following the diagnosis of his lower back issue in early September, Cummins had expressed a willingness to `take a few risks and be a little bit aggressive` to participate in the Ashes, even if it meant skipping preparatory white-ball or red-ball matches.
Nevertheless, the timeframe for him to build up sufficient bowling workload for the Perth Test, even considering a degree of risk, is now more compressed than Cricket Australia`s medical and high-performance teams would typically find acceptable.
During his recovery, Cummins has focused on leg strengthening exercises but has been unable to perform any rotational movements. Beyond the immediate back problem, a compromised preparation significantly increases the risk of soft tissue injuries. Cummins has a history of managing such issues, along with ankle problems, requiring meticulously planned build-ups for major series.
Last year, he skipped Australia`s limited-overs tour of the UK for a ten-week training block ahead of the Border-Gavaskar series. Even with that extensive preparation, he only managed one 50-over match for New South Wales and two ODIs for Australia before the first Test against India, as initial plans for a Sheffield Shield game were abandoned.
Ashes Series Schedule and Bowling Concerns
The Ashes series kicks off with the first Test on November 21, approximately six weeks from the current date. The second Test is scheduled for December 4 in Brisbane, followed by the third Test in Adelaide exactly ten weeks from now, on December 17. The fourth Test will commence on Boxing Day, nine days later.
Given the eight-day breaks following the initial two Tests, there`s a possibility that Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, and Scott Boland could manage through to the Adelaide Test without requiring rotation or additional bowlers, especially if Cummins needs more recovery time.
However, the schedule tightens with only four-day intervals between the Adelaide and Melbourne Tests, and again between Melbourne and Sydney. This highlights the crucial need for fresh bowlers in both teams during the latter stages of the series, a factor notably demonstrated in the 2023 Ashes in England, where Mark Wood and Chris Woakes, after sitting out the first two Tests, became dominant forces in the final three due to their freshness.
Last summer, India`s Jasprit Bumrah suffered a back injury in the final Sydney Test after attempting to shoulder his team`s bowling attack through five matches. This occurred after a demanding schedule, including bowling the most overs of his career in a single Test in Melbourne, following significant workloads in the preceding three Tests, all with just a four-day break.
Managing the Pace Attack
Consequently, the careful management of Starc, Hazlewood, and Boland leading up to the Perth Test becomes paramount. Starc and Hazlewood are included in Australia`s ODI squad for three matches against India, commencing October 19, with Hazlewood also selected for the first two T20Is of a five-match series starting October 29. Both are also expected to play a Sheffield Shield match for New South Wales on November 10.
Boland successfully completed 35 overs in Victoria`s opening Shield game of the season. While he is anticipated to play at least one more match, it seems improbable he will play three, and certainly not all four.
Beyond the primary trio, Michael Neser showcased strong form, claiming six wickets across 43 overs on a flat Allan Border Field pitch against Tasmania. His management over the upcoming three Shield matches, especially given his recovery from a significant hamstring injury last season, will be closely watched.
Brendan Doggett, who missed the first Shield round due to a minor hamstring issue, is projected to play for South Australia against Queensland next week. Sean Abbott is also a contender; after being excluded from Australia`s ODI squad against India, he might return to Shield cricket for New South Wales against Victoria in Melbourne next week. However, his inclusion in the T20I squad for October 29 and 31 presents a scheduling conflict.
Captaincy Contingency
Should Cummins be unavailable, Australia would require an interim captain. Steven Smith, who has deputised as skipper six times since Cummins assumed the role in 2021 and led Australia in 40 Tests overall, is the most probable choice. Travis Head, the other Test vice-captain, is considered a less likely option to lead ahead of Smith.
