Understanding Chelsea`s strategy for building their team over the past three years is straightforward. Owner Todd Boehly has frequently explained his vision, including in February of this year.
“You identify what you believe are younger players that come together,” he stated, “a portfolio of players that are going to be consistent and reliable and have the potential to be together for a very long time.”
Regardless of one`s opinion on the principle or execution of this plan, it seems contradictory for a club focused on developing a young core to consider parting ways with Noni Madueke. Yet, this is precisely what Chelsea appears to be doing, reportedly in discussions with Arsenal regarding the sale of the English international. The potential deal is said to be worth close to $70 million, approximately double the fee paid when he joined from PSV Eindhoven in January 2023.
It is understood that Madueke has agreed personal terms with Arsenal, though club-to-club negotiations are still in their early stages. This leaves a window for Chelsea to reverse what currently seems to be their path on this particular transfer. Selling Madueke would undermine a team-building process that has begun showing promise over the last 18 months, recently evidenced by the team reaching the Club World Cup final.
Transferring him to Arsenal would represent a serious mistake.
Madueke`s Growing Influence
By the conclusion of the 2024-25 season, it became evident that Madueke was on the verge of becoming a genuinely impressive winger. His raw statistics—11 goals and five assists in 46 appearances across all competitions—might not immediately stand out to scouts, but a deeper look reveals a player making significant progress. It was a somewhat underwhelming finishing season for Madueke in the top flight, converting 9.64 non-penalty expected goals into seven actual goals. Following a hat-trick against Wolves early in the season, his goal output became less consistent, but this wasn`t due to a lack of effort. The same could be said for his assists, contributing three in the league from 4.2 expected goals assisted (xAG).
A crucial factor any potential suitor like Arsenal will assess in a 23-year-old wide forward is their shot volume. For attacking players, this trait is arguably paramount: even if goals aren`t flowing, are they getting into scoring positions? Madueke did this effectively, averaging three and a half shots per 90 minutes in the Premier League. No other player in his position took more, surpassing even Bukayo Saka and Mohamed Salah. These weren`t hopeful efforts either; his non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per shot more than doubled from 0.055 to 0.12, roughly aligning with the league average. These improvements are visible in the graphic below, showing a significantly higher proportion of shots originating from within the box.
Watching those attempts back reveals the effort Madueke puts into challenging the goalkeeper. Early in the season, goals came more easily in a more transitional Chelsea attack. As Enzo Maresca`s structured approach became embedded, Madueke often had to beat multiple defenders to create shooting opportunities. The key point, however, is that he succeeded in doing so. Although the ball didn`t go in for him during the 3-1 win over Liverpool in early May, it was largely down to luck for the champions, whose defenders on both flanks struggled to contain Chelsea`s number 11.
Overall, Madueke`s npxG per 90 minutes surged last season, climbing from 0.15 to 0.42. This latter figure was bettered by only three wingers—Salah, Luis Diaz, and Brennan Johnson—and the latter two do not offer the level of ball carrying that Madueke provides. Again, Chelsea`s right winger, frequently the third attacking option behind Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson, ranks among the Premier League`s elite. The only wide players with more progressive carries than Madueke were Manchester City`s duo, Savinho and Jeremy Doku. Observers at the Etihad know that this wing pairing combined did not match Madueke`s Premier League goal tally.
Madueke might not be the league`s best crosser, and his passing still needs improvement. But what is undeniable is that in 2024-25, he consistently performed actions that positively impact winning. The statistics support this. His expected possession value added—a metric assessing how much each action with the ball increases the likelihood of scoring—is exceptionally high for a player who takes so many shots.
Some readers will naturally bring up the “eye test.” While some observers might not rank Madueke among the top wide forwards based purely on what they see, the data contradicts this. If he occasionally seems to run into dead ends or drive at full-backs unsuccessfully, or makes questionable decisions when trying to create something, well, that`s characteristic of many wingers. It`s what they do.
Madueke still needs to win over skeptics, and the reported interest from Arsenal has caused frustration among some online Arsenal supporters (though admittedly, provoking online fan reaction is often easy). Perhaps they are wary of another former Chelsea player. Experiences with Willian and Raheem Sterling might contribute to this sentiment.
Concerns might also exist about how he would integrate into the dressing room, given the public questions raised by Maresca regarding his attitude and work rate. However, delivering such valuable on-field contributions, even if perceived as having a diffident approach, hardly seems the worst problem.
Valid questions also arise regarding resource allocation concerning Madueke, who it should be noted has faced muscle injury issues during his time at Chelsea. Arsenal are spending significantly this summer, but even Andrea Berta`s spending power has limits. Is it worthwhile pushing the budget for a player who profiles as an excellent alternative to Bukayo Saka when there might be opportunities to upgrade on Gabriel Martinelli on the opposite flank? Madueke has played on both wings for Chelsea but is more effective cutting inside from the right on his stronger left foot. In limited Premier League minutes on the left, he averaged fewer than three shots per 90 minutes and created minimal chances. He might also question if the role Arsenal envisions for him is best for his development, though given that personal terms are reportedly agreed, it may be too late for second thoughts.
While Madueke might not perfectly fit Arsenal`s specific needs, this doesn`t negate his trajectory towards playing for one of Europe`s top clubs. Considering his significant improvements and his standing among Premier League peers, it`s difficult to argue otherwise. Not every player on his current trajectory becomes a superstar, but many stars have had seasons like Madueke`s recent one at a similar age.
Why Would Chelsea Consider Letting Him Go?
Given Madueke`s potential, why would Chelsea even entertain discussions with a rival about him? The 23-year-old has been publicly criticized for his attitude more than once since arriving at Stamford Bridge. Maresca dropped him twice in December, and his strong remarks after a game against Aston Villa are the kind managers typically only make when they feel it`s necessary.
“In the moment that he starts to score or assist and is happy, he starts to drop a little bit,” Maresca said after a 3-0 win over Aston Villa. “The reason he was not playing is because I don`t like the way he trained. He has to understand that he has to train every day good, he has to be ambitious. If he scores one tonight, he has to go for the second one, the third one.”
“He has to be ambitious, to give more assists. But overall, he`s doing great, he`s doing fantastic.”
These incidents aren`t limited to last season either. The attempt to take a penalty from Cole Palmer in April of last year wasn`t a good look. However, even the biggest skeptics about Madueke`s attitude must acknowledge that it didn`t prevent the youngster from improving significantly last season.
There is, of course, another argument for selling Madueke: the significant fee received could fund superior signings elsewhere. Taking $70-80 million for your number 11 and reinvesting it in a player like Rodrygo or attempting to sign Bradley Barcola from Paris Saint-Germain would be smart business. Is flipping Madueke for Jamie Bynoe-Gittens smart? The former Borussia Dortmund player is younger and could potentially address Chelsea`s left-wing issues, but the 20-year-old averaged 0.31 npxG+xAG in last season`s Bundesliga. Joao Pedro offers Maresca more options, but it cannot be argued that he didn`t score many penalties at Brighton. Willian Estevao looked promising in his last match for Palmeiras before his future move to Chelsea.
Selling Madueke might work out for Chelsea. Willian Estevao looks exciting, and Bynoe-Gittens might also flourish. However, Chelsea should remember the point made by former Liverpool director of research Ian Graham years ago. Even for deals with high confidence levels across various factors, there`s essentially a 50-50 chance whether a new signing will be successful.
Madueke`s acquisition has already paid off: a relatively low-cost signing from a second-tier European league who can consistently play over 2,000 minutes for a team aiming for Champions League qualification. There`s no guarantee he will maintain last season`s dramatic upward trajectory, but if his development continues along anything resembling that path, he is an outstanding player, one who could easily rank among the best and brightest in Boehly`s projected `portfolio` of stars.
